Thursday, May 16, 2019

Uncertainty Surrounding Pitt's 2019 Class as National Letter of Intent Deadline Passes

   Each spring, college basketball's top recruits sign their National Letters of Intent (NLI), officially kicking off their college basketball journeys. This year, the NLI signing window opened on April 17, 2019.

   Two of Jeff Capel and Pitt's recruits, forwards Gerald Drumgoole and Justin Champagnie, quickly signed on the dotted-lines, as each Pitt commit signed their NLI within just two days of the start of the signing period.

   Following nearly a month-long window to sign, the deadline to do so passed yesterday, May 15, 2019. Notably, the signing period ended without Pitt's third high school commit, Karim Coulibaly, signing his own NLI. 
    Given that Coulibaly was expected to sign earlier this month, and that the NLI deadline has now passed, I wanted to take a moment to explore the NLI process, and what this means and does not mean for Pitt.

What does this mean?

   First and foremost, Coulibaly's decision not to sign his NLI before the May 15 deadline means that he can no longer sign a National Letter of Intent.

   However, a National Letter of Intent is not a requirement for incoming student athletes. This means that he can no longer sign the letter, which would create a more binding link between Coulibaly and Pitt than a verbal commitment. However, he can still join the Panthers' basketball team this Fall.

So if signing an NLI is optional, why do it?

   Signing a National Letter of Intent, according to the official NLI website, creates a more formal binding relationship between the player and the school than simply a verbal commitment. Once a player signs a NLI, they formally agree to play for the academic institution for at least one year, in exchange for a guarantee of scholarship from the participating college. 

   In this case, signing his NLI would have meant that Coulibaly would formally agree to play for Pitt for one year in exchange for a guarantee of his scholarship. Once signed, his recruitment would have been officially over, as a recruiting ban is instituted once a player signs an NLI.

   By not signing an NLI, Coulibaly effectively left his recruitment period open, meaning that he can still be contacted and recruited by other teams and coaches. 

What does this NOT mean?

   While it may seem like bad news on its nose that Coulibaly did not sign his NLI, it is important for us to consider what this news does not mean, as well.

   First and foremost, it does not mean that Coulibaly won't be playing at Pitt in 2019. As previously stated, signing a NLI is not a requirement to play at the collegiate level, and he will not be the only 2019 commit not to sign one. In fact, as of the writing of this article, Coulibaly is still committed to Pitt and I would still bet that he winds up featuring on the Pitt Panthers 2019-20 basketball roster.

   However, this is certainly a situation to keep our eyes on, as this time of year, it is not uncommon to see players de-commit after failing to sign a NLI. We've already seen some high profile de-commitments this May, including the likes of top-50 guards Boogie Ellis from Duke and Jalen Wilson from Michigan, as well as top-150 forward Emanuel Miller from Virginia Tech.

   Just in the past few days alone, we have seen de-commitments from some major front-court players of interest to Capel and Pitt, including former Wake Forest commit Charles Coleman and former Ole Miss commit Rodney Howard.

   This is interesting, in particular because of an April 18, 2019 report from Pantherlair's Jim Hammett, which indicated that Coulibaly was planning on signing together with some of his Scotland Campus teammates in May:
   However, according to the Scotland Campus basketball Twitter, it would appear that those teammates signed their own pledges to their new college teams on May 10, 2019, as Clarence Nadolny signed with Texas Tech and Austin Brain signed with Alpena Community College in Alpena, Michigan.
   This does not mean that Coulibaly has decided not to come to Pitt, and as I previously stated, he is still committed to Pitt's 2019 class. This is simply a situation to follow as the spring continues.

   I have reached out to Scotland Campus but have not yet heard back, and will update this story if provided with comment.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019

News and Notes - Wednesday, May 15th, 2019

Happy Wednesday, and thanks for stopping by the Pitt Basketball Lead! Let's check out some mid-week Pitt basketball news:
  • Today is the 19th birthday of rising sophomore guard Trey McGowens:
  • McGowens was very notably Jeff Capel's first commit as head coach last April, and showed some tremendous flashes during the 2018-19 season, as he started 32 games and posted 11.6 points per game as a true freshman.
  • As for 2019 recruiting, many are left wondering where Pitt will go now that they missed out on Khadim Sy, the latest in a string of disappointing second-place finishes for big men by Capel's staff. One possibility is 7-foot center Charles Coleman, who just de-committed from Wake Forest earlier this week. Capel reportedly offered Coleman a scholarship yesterday.
    • Coleman, a three-star prospect out of Boston, MA, ranks 330th nationally according to 247sports. Since his de-commitment from Wake Forest, Coleman has received scholarships from some major programs including Duke, UConn, and Georgia.
    • It's hard to say at this time whether Pitt has a shot with Coleman. UConn offers him a closer landing spot to his home in Massachusetts, while Duke offers him the same opportunity to play in the ACC as Pitt would, but with a greater likelihood of early on-court success. 
    • Meanwhile, Pitt may offer him the best chance at meaningful playing time early in his career. Coleman will certainly be a player to follow moving forward, not just in terms of other schools from which he receives offers, but in terms of Pitt's contact with him.
  • Another recruiting note, as Moon forward Donovan Johnson was named the Pennsylvania 5A Player of the Year yesterday.
    • Johnson also saw his recruitment take a huge step forward yesterday as he was offered a scholarship by North Carolina, where his brother and former Pitt Panther Cameron Johnson finished his collegiate career this past season.
    • Congratulations to Johnson, who has certainly earned a celebration following a very successful junior year. Johnson, the brother of Cameron and the son of former Pitt forward Gil Johnson and the brother, should continue to be a major recruiting focus of Capel's moving forward.
  • One final note on Donovan Johnson--according to the Post Gazette, he may not be eligible to play basketball his senior year at Moon due to PIAA/WPIAL restrictions which state that "a student may not play in more than six seasons in a sport after the sixth grade." At the center of the issue is that Johnson repeated eighth grade, which has him at the end of his sixth season. According to the article, Johnson will appeal the decision that would restrict him from competing next season.
    • If Johnson is deemed ineligible to compete at Moon next year, is it possible that he could re-classify to the 2019 class and play at the college level for the 2019-20 season? This is a question that I'll be hoping to explore, and one that may intensify Capel's pursuit of Johnson.
  • On a lighter note, you can vote for Pitt in Uniswag's 2019 "Uniform of the Year" competition for college basketball jerseys. The Pitt retro uniform is nominated alongside ACC opponents Louisville and Georgia Tech, as well as a variety of other schools. You can follow the link in the tweet to vote for Pitt:
  • Over at Pittsburgh Sports Now, Mike Vukovcan offers a take on Sy's decision to play basketball at Ole Miss and on the state of recruiting for Capel and Pitt.
  • Finally, if you haven't had the chance to check out my article from yesterday on Capel's recruiting philosophy and the state of affairs following Sy's decision, feel free to give it a read.
That's it for today's News and Notes. Thanks for reading, and Hail to Pitt!
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Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Missing Recruits, Khadim Sy, and a Winning Recruiting Philosophy

   One Jeff Capel quote bounces around my head nearly every day, more than 13 months into Jeff Capel's tenure as Head Coach of the Pitt men's basketball team.

   “I was not going to take guys, even if all of [the players inherited from Kevin Stallings' team] would have left, just to have bodies. The thing that I wanted were guys who have value and are actually good enough to help us be competitive and eventually help us win.” (Trib Live)

   At the time, that quote surprised me. Sure, Capel made this remark after the additions of wunderkinds Trey McGowens and Xavier Johnson, as well as graduate transfer Sidy N'Dir. But even with those pieces, Capel was tasked with filling out a roster that was completely in shambles.

   Surely he would need to add some players for depth if for nothing else. Right? As it turns out, maybe not.

   Capel got one more commitment last summer in four-star forward Au'Diese Toney, but he wasn't afraid to leave a scholarship or two open if he could not find the right fit for the future of Pitt basketball.

   Rightly, optimism swelled following Capel's swift recruiting success last summer. But the pressure ticked up a notch once the focus shifted to the 2019 class. As the 2018-19 season kicked off, we heard about all of the blue-chip front-courters that Capel was recruiting--Akok Akok, Kofi Cockburn, Oscar Tshiebwe, Qudus Wahab.

   Fans were impressed by Capel's ability to get these kids to listen and to show genuine interest in Pitt, despite how far the program's star had fallen over the prior few years. And then Capel missed. And he missed again. And again.

   Some of the misses caused more hurt for the fans than others--Akok committing to former Pitt coaching candidate Dan Hurley and UConn; Wahab committing to Patrick Ewing and Georgetown after a long, drawn-out recruitment; Tshiebwe, the local product, choosing West Virginia.

   The most recent in the string of close-call-misses for Capel and his Panthers is Daytona State College big man Khadim Sy, who committed to Ole Miss on Mon., May 13.

   Following another high-profile miss, the frustration boiled over for some Pitt fans:


   And yet, following Sy's decision to commit to Ole Miss, I once again revisited Capel's quote from May, 2018: "I was not going to take guys... just to have bodies. The thing that I wanted were guys who have value and are actually good enough to help us be competitive and eventually help us win."

   Capel won't fill the roster for the sake of filling the roster. He wants to get players who can help Pitt win, and only players who can help Pitt win. And that's a good thing.

   Look no further than Pitt's 2017 recruiting class for the evidence of why that principle is so important. The highest-ranked frontcourt player that Pitt and Kevin Stallings got in 2017 was Peace Ilegomah at no. 253 nationally. He was followed Terrell Brown (no. 324), and Samson George (no. 420). In fact, Ilegomah was the third highest-ranked player in the seven-man 2017 class, behind Marcus Carr (no. 147), and Jared Wilson-Frame (no. 10 junior college player).

   Of course, the 2017-18 season wound up being historically bad, sprinkled with some historically bad single-game performances just for kicks. And while Brown has shown flashes of ACC-caliber play in the front court, he's also been frustratingly inconsistent. George has yet to receive meaningful minutes, and Ilegomah faced a similar fate prior to his transfer during this past season.

   If he wanted warm bodies to fill out his roster, Capel could convince any number of players to join the roster. The problem, of course, is that Pitt has recruited that type of player. And that landed Pitt with a class of big men that has largely lacked any promise, save for the intriguing potential of Brown.

   To me, Capel's quote gives us a lot of insight about his recruiting philosophy; one that is based on both positive and negative experiences of his own as a head coach. Take, for instance, his recruiting classes at the University of Oklahoma.

   In 2007, Capel brought his first elite recruit to Oklahoma in Blake Griffin. And after Capel signed Griffin, he started attracting star recruits in greater numbers. He got another elite prospect in 2008. He got three more top-100 prospects in 2009. Even in 2010 after a disappointing season, he got another top-50 commit. And while these were the highs, Capel's Oklahoma recruiting classes certainly had their lows.

   Despite reeling in one of the finest recruits in the country in 2007 in Griffin, Capel also signed a two-star forward named Omar Leary, ranked no. 652 nationally. In the 2008 class, Oklahoma brought in two top-100 players, but also three players ranked lower than no. 300 nationally.  In 2010, Capel brought in the no. 33 player in the country, but also five ranked lower than no. 228 nationally. 

   Capel and the Sooners hit a phenomenal high of 30 wins and reached the Elite Eight in 2008-09, Griffin's sophomore campaign. However, the success was short-lived. Following back-to-back 13- and 14-win seasons in 2009-10 and 2010-11, Capel was fired.

   Even though he brought in some highly-ranked recruits, Oklahoma's roster was weighed down by the warm bodies brought in to fill scholarships and provide depth, and that, in part, prevented sustained success with the Sooners. Perhaps Capel would have achieved that success at Oklahoma had he taken the blue-chippers like Griffin and left open scholarships for the right fit instead of filling his roster with projects like Leary.

   Following this experience and after spending several seasons as head assistant coach and recruiter extraordinaire at Duke, it seems that Capel has taken this wisdom with him to Pitt. In 2018, Capel's lowest-ranked recruit was Johnson at no. 232. McGowens and Toney were both ranked in the top 120 nationally. 

   Thus far, in the 2019 class, Capel's top signee is forward Gerald Drumgoole, at no. 108. The lowest-ranked high school commit is forward Karim Coulibaly at no. 221, ranked 11 spots higher than Johnson in last season's class. 

   With the recent addition of junior college sharpshooter Ryan Murphy, Pitt currently has the 43rd-ranked 2019 class in the country. It goes without saying that securing one of the top big men in the country would have been a major boon for this recruiting class and for this Pitt program.

   But more importantly than individual recruits in year two of this basketball regime is Capel's long-term recruiting philosophy, which has begun to take shape during his first two classes. His priority at the beginning of each recruiting cycle will be elite prospects. He will be stingy with his scholarship offers, first targeting the blue chip prospects who match Pitt's needs and can help them win.

   If he misses on his top targets, he'll pursue other solid prospects so long as they can help Pitt win. And certainly, he will miss out on some recruits. Very importantly, however, is that Capel will not continue to miss out on all elite recruits. 

   He has earned his reputation as one of the most effective recruiters in the nation. How? By building relationships. The longer he is at Pitt, the stronger the relationships he will build. 

   During the 2018 and 2019 classes, Capel was playing from behind with elite prospects, who had already been receiving attention from college basketball's top coaches for multiple years. It's simply hard to compete with coaches who have taken years to build strong relationships, especially as the new head coach of a struggling program that had lost all direction.

   By next season, he will have been building relationships with prospects like 2020 center Hunter Dickinson for nearly three years as Pitt's head coach. Will that ultimately land them a guy like Dickinson? Only time will tell. He will certainly miss out on some recruits like him. 

   But Capel is a well-known relationship builder. And once he has time to build those relationships more thoroughly, contrary to his first two years here, Capel will start to land some of those prospects who can turn Pitt basketball around. And as was the case with Griffin at Oklahoma, once he lands one, more will come.

   But in the meantime, look no further than Capel's tenure at Oklahoma to see why he would choose to leave some scholarships open than to sign a middle-of-the-line big man like Ilegomah, Brown, or George. Because in college basketball, your team might be just one star recruit away from turning everything around; and sometimes, it's the mediocrity of the rest that brings you down.

   Have patience Panthers fans, because Jeff Capel has learned a lot from a career in college hoops. He has taken his lumps during his first two recruiting classes at Pitt, but his recruiting philosophy will bear fruit--maybe even sooner than we think.
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Opinion: The City Game has run its course

   Following the Panthers' win on Monday night against Northern Illinois, Pitt men's basketball coach Jeff Capel gave a curt respons...