Tuesday, November 12, 2019

As Early Signing Period Nears, What are Pitt's Recruiting Priorities?

   The early signing period for Division-I men's basketball is right around the corner, as class of 2020 commits will be able to sign their National Letters of Intent (NLI) beginning this Wednesday, Nov. 13. The early signing period will last just one week and end on Nov. 20, marking the last day that players can sign a NLI until April 15, 2020.

What is a National Letter of Intent?


   To understand the significance of the early signing period, it is important to know exactly how a National Letter of Intent works. A NLI is an official agreement that a player can sign in which the school agrees to give the committing student athletics financial aid for the upcoming year in exchange for the student athlete's agreement to spend at least one year on campus as a student.

   The most important outcome from signing a NLI is that all NCAA coaches from other institutions are immediately banned from contacting the player that signed the NLI. In effect, signing a letter of intent ends a player's recruitment.

   Naturally, coaches want their commits to sign during the early signing period, because it takes all of the guess-work out of the equation. Certainly Jeff Capel and staff are hard at work trying to maintain pledges from their three commits, and if each signs a NLI next week, they will no longer need to fend off other coaches. If any of the commits do not sign next week, they can still be recruited until next April--representing a five month swing in the recruiting process.

   But aside from just the benefits to the current class, early signing also yields long-term benefits, as the coaching staff can start to turn their attention toward future recruiting classes if they can officially lock up current commits.

   If each recruit signs, Pitt can focus their efforts on filling out their 2020 class, or even on building relationships with players in the 2021 class and beyond.

How does Pitt's 2020 class currently look?


   As we prepare to dive into the early signing period this week, Pitt currently holds commitments from three players, including Rivals150 players Noah Collier and John Hugley, and three-star center Max Amadasun. Should Pitt expect each of them to sign next week?

   Collier was the first commitment for Capel's 2020 class, pledging himself to join the Panthers on Sept. 23, 2019. The Rivals150 forward is a nice get for Pitt, which has quietly built really solid depth at the wing between Au'Diese Toney, Justin Champagnie, and Gerald Drumgoole. The addition of Collier further solidifies the 3-4 position as a real area of strength for the Panthers now and in the future.


   Hugley is the gem of class so far, and is currently ranked as no. 95 in the Rivals150. He is the top-tier frontcourt presence that Capel has been trying to recruit since he first took the job at Pitt, and they finally landed his commitment just a few weeks ago on Oct. 18. Joining an interior that will include senior Terrell Brown and sophomore Karim Coulibaly, Hugley may be able to find minutes quickly in Capel's rotation.


   Amadasun committed on Oct. 14, just days before Hugley. He is a nice developmental big man who
may not find his way onto the court as quickly as Hugley in 2020. Center is often regarded as the position with the steepest learning curve in college basketball, and it is not uncommon for a true freshman big to need more development before they are ready for game action. Having Brown, Coulibaly, and Hugley would allow Capel the time to develop Amadasun if they do not believe that he is game-ready when he comes to campus next season.


   Especially given the timing of each player's commitment to Pitt--all within the past two months--I am sure that Capel and staff have talked with each of Collier, Hugley, and Amadasun about signing their NLIs during the early signing period.

   I have reached out to the commits about their plans, but have not yet heard back. As of right now, I expect that each of these players will sign a NLI during the early signing period, allowing Capel to focus on filling out the rest of his class and developing relationships with players in future classes.

What will Pitt do after the early signing period?


   Assuming that each of Pitt's commits signs during the early signing period, Pitt will likely shift its attention to future classes. Officially, Pitt's recruiting class will be completely full, as they will have filled each of the three scholarships that are currently available for the 2020-21 season.

   Still, Capel will likely want to add at least one more player, especially in the event that Xavier Johnson leaves for the NBA following the season. That may not be the likeliest scenario at this point, but it's definitely a possibility that the staff will want to prepare for. 

   In that regard, Pitt has recently been connected with 2020 point guard Jalen Terry, who recently decommitted from Michigan State. Pitt has also been in contact with guard Shakeel Moore out of North Carolina, the high school teammate of five-star wing Josh Hall. As Hall looks to make his college decision in the near future, Pitt may still have a shot to get him on campus for a visit.

   Aside from those specific players, I would not be surprised to see Capel hold tight on the 2020 class and start focusing on putting Pitt in a position to land some of their top targets for 2021 and beyond. Some of the key 2021 prospects that Pitt has been linked to thus far include guards Bryce McGowens and Carter Whitt, and big men Adama Sanogo and Micawber Etienne

   The longer that Capel is able to focus on key players in future classes, couple with more progress on the court to prove that Capel's vision for Pitt is working, the more likely it is that Pitt will wind up with some of the elite prospects tat they are currently recruiting. 

   As the early signing period arrives on Wednesday, keep checking in with the Pitt Basketball Lead for news on where Pitt's 2020 class stands and where they go from here.

Pitt Pod Episode 4 - Recruiting Notes, Early Season Struggles for the Pitt men's team, Positive Outlook for the Pitt women's team, and more

   On this episode of the Pitt Pod, we discuss the state of Pitt men's basketball recruitment, the successes and failures of the team in the first week of the season, the state of the Pitt women's basketball team, and I include a meta-announcement about the blog.
**Sorry in advance for the staticky-sounds throughout the blog, as I realized too late that my microphone picked up the rustling of the couch that I was sitting on.**



Monday, November 11, 2019

Pitt Women's Basketball Update - Monday, Nov. 11, 2019

   The Pitt men's team wasn't the only Pitt basketball team to open their season last week, as the Pitt women's basketball team also opened up their season last Wednesday, Nov. 6, on the road against the UCF Knights. Much like the men's team, which started with a tough ACC opponent, the women faced off against against a stout UCF team that won 26 games and reached the NCAA tournament last season.

   Pitt lost 74-58 to the Knights in a back-and-forth game that saw Pitt jump out to an early 13-point edge, as they led UCF 18-5 with just four minutes remaining in the first quarter. UCF took the lead in the third quarter, opening up an eight point lead before Pitt battled back to cut the deficit to just one, as they trailed 47-46 with two minutes remaining in the third.

   From there, the Panthers turned the ball over on their final three possessions of the quarter and did not register a shot, allowing the Knights to jump back out to an eight point lead to start the fourth quarter.

   The fourth quarter saw Pitt play a much cleaner brand of basketball, as they turned the ball over just once while UCF committed seven turnovers. That was ultimately not enough for Pitt to get the win though, as they fell on the road in Orlando, Fla.

New Look Roster


   However, this is not your Panthers team of yesteryear, as Pitt enters this season with a new-look roster that returns just five players and introduces seven new Panthers, including five true freshmen and a couple of transfers.

   The Panthers group of true freshmen this year include some highly-touted commits from the class of 2019. White secured commitments from Amber Brown (no. 17 ranked wing), Rita Igbokwe (no. 19 ranked post player), Emy Hayford (no. 28 ranked guard), Dayshannette Harris (no. 71 ranked point guard), and forward Cynthia Ezeja from Greece.

   The transfers include center Marcella Lamark dos Santos from Texas Tech, who will be eligible to play after the first semester of this season; and JUCO commit Gabbie Green out of South Plains College. Expect Lamark dos Santos to contribute during conference play, as she adds some much-needed depth to the Panthers' interior.

   After just one game, it is clear that the new additions to Pitt's roster will make a significant impact on the team this year. Four of the true freshmen--Brown, Harris, Igbokwe, and Hayford--played at least 10 minutes against UCF, with Brown and Harris drawing starts for White's team. Green also got the nod to start against the Knights and scored 18 points in 25 minutes of action.

   The only returning players to start against UCF were sixth-year guard Aysia Bugg, who played a whopping 39 minutes on Wednesday, and junior center Cara Judkins, who led the team with seven rebounds in 30 minutes of action. Pitt also saw contributions from sophomores Jahsyni Knight and Ismini Prapa, who played 13 and 14 minutes, respectively.

    The Panthers will add more talent and depth to their rotation when junior Kyla Nelson returns, in addition to Lamark dos Santos becoming eligible next semester. Nelson, who is working her way back to the court following surgery to remove a tumor on her appendix, shot over 40 percent from three-point land last season. We at the Pitt Basketball Lead are wishing her a speedy recovery.

High Expectations


   Even after Wednesday's loss, it's hard not to feel optimistic about the future of this Pitt team as they enter their second season under head coach Lance White. And this year's Pitt team comes into the season with high expectations for themselves, as White told the Trib that the Panthers want to be better than they were last season while battling in ACC games.

   Regardless of how the wins and losses shake out this season, nobody can argue with the energy that White is bringing to the team. There's a palpable buzz around the Panthers that was missing for several years, and it finally feels like they are just one or two seasons away from turning the corner.

   White's stellar ability to recruit could help Pitt return to the NCAA tournament sooner rather than later. After putting together a strong 2019 class, White is already putting together an even better 2020 class, one that features ESPN 100 forward Tracey Huesten out of Virginia, and no. 10 ranked wing Liatu King out of Maryland.

   During a two-year span which has seen significant advances for Pitt's volleyball team, the men's and women's soccer teams, and wrestling,  the Pitt women's basketball team is not far behind. Expect the young team to learn and grow this season, before putting themselves in a position to take it to the next level in the next couple of seasons.

   Pitt faces off against Central Connecticut State University at 7 p.m. tonight, marking their first game of the season at home in the Petersen Events Center. The game will be broadcast on ACCNX, for those fans who can't make it to the game.

Recruiting Notes - Monday, November 11th, 2019

   As Pitt prepares to face Robert Morris and move on from a tough loss to Nicholls State on Saturday, there is no shortage of news from the recruiting trail as Jeff Capel's staff continues to pursue the players that they hope will ultimately bring Pitt back to national relevance as a basketball powerhouse.

  • During his Twitter Tuesday mailbag post from last week, Corey Evans of Rivals.com suggested that the completion of Pitt's 2020 class is likely to come from graduate transfers, junior college prospects, or decommitments.
    • Reading between the lines, that likely means that Pitt is probably no longer in the running for five-star wing Josh Hall, who it had previously been reported might take an official visit to Pitt before making his college decision this month. We will keep you posted with any updates on Hall, who seems to be very high on NC State.  
    • The other nugget in his blurb about Pitt is that Pitt might receive an official visit from recent Michigan State decommit Jalen Terry, from Flint, Mich. I have not seen much of anything specifically linking Terry with Pitt, but Evans is a pretty plugged-in recruiting analyst, and it's a good bet that Pitt is at least in touch with Terry if Evans is suggesting that Pitt might get an official visit. Terry just visited Chris Mack and Louisville this past weekend.
  • Moving onto 2021 targets, Bryce McGowens, the younger brother of Trey McGowens, took an unofficial visit this weekend, and it was his third visit to that particular school:
    • Visiting a school for a third time is a big deal for any recruit, and since McGowens is already a junior in high school, odds are that he is seriously considering Georgia as a potential landing spot. I would venture a guess that they may even be the favorite for McGowens at this point.
    • Of course, the younger McGowens also visited Pitt the weekend of Oct. 26, and took a trip to Clemson on Nov. 5, and his recruitment is very clearly still open. Especially with his older brother playing for Pitt, I suspect that the Panthers will be a key player in the junior guard's recruitment.
  • Another top 2021 target, center Adama Sanogo, spent the weekend at Seton Hall according to Adam Zagoria: 
    • Seton Hall will surely be a major player for Sanogo in the class of 2021, but the impressive center has also received offers from Connecticut, Marquette, Oregon, Xavier, and TCU, among others. If Pitt winds up landing Sanogo, it won't come without fighting off several other high-majors.
  • 2021 center Micawber Etienne has also started taking college visits, and the Connecticut native seems to be focusing on Big East programs, having visited Marquette (official), Connecticut, and Providence within the past month:
    • The Big East is still a really solid basketball conference, and Etienne appears to have serious interest in playing his college career with a Big East school. We'll see if Capel and Pitt can garner some interest for 
  • Finally, two potential Pitt recruits were on hand for the game on Saturday: 2022 prospect Issac McKneely from Poca, W. Va., and 2023 prospect Rodney Gallagher from Uniontown, Pa.:
  • McKneely, a sophomore at Poca High School, has already received multiple Division-I offers including from Davidson, Marshall, Robert Morris, and Stetson. 
  • Gallagher, a freshman at Laurel Highlands High School, has also received Division-I attention early in his high school career, as he received an offer from Illinois in July before the start of his freshman year. 
    • Gallagher is also a talented football player for Lauren Highlands, and was listed among the top wide receivers in Pennsylvania's class of 2023 by Rivals' PaPreps site. Who knows, maybe we'll see him get equal attention from both Capel and Pitt football head coach Pat Narduzzi.
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Saturday, November 9, 2019

By the Numbers: Pitt vs. Nicholls State - Nov. 9, 2019

   Pitt dropped their first non-conference game of the season today at home to the Nicholls State Colonels by a score of 75-70. Despite being down by around 10 points for most of the game, Pitt battled back and actually narrowed the deficit to just one point with around a minute left. 

   But as was the case for much of the game, the final minute was defined by turnovers and sloppy play as Pitt could not finish the comeback. With the result officially in the books, let's take a look at some of the numbers behind Pitt's performance today:

Twenty-eight points by Ryan Murphy

Offensively, Murphy one of the few bright spots for the Panthers, who put up up 28 points on 10-of-17 shooting, including four three-pointers. He added five rebounds and three assists. The first-year Pitt guard out of New Mexico Junior College played the most of any Panther today with 37 minutes, as he stayed on the court for the duration of the game once he was subbed in at the 16:57 mark in the first half.

Murphy, who was lauded for his shooting and overall effort level in the season opener against Florida State, has quickly become a focal point of Jeff Capel's offense. While Capel surely expects and hopes for significant contributions from Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens, there can be little doubt that Murphy will be very important to the Panthers' success this season.

Five blocks by Terrell Brown

Just about the only other bright spot in Pitt's loss today was junior big man Terrell Brown, who was a defensive force on the low block today. Brown finished today's game with eight points on a perfect 4-for-4 shooting, and added five rebounds (three offensive), and five blocks. The five blocks give him 112 for his career thus far, earning him a spot among the top-10 shot blockers in Pitt basketball history.

Perhaps most importantly today was that Brown once again finished the day with zero turnovers, for the second time in two games this season. Last season, Brown was notorious for his propensity to fumble passes underneath the basket, but he has been sure-handed and reliable thus far this season. 

His contributions to the Panthers both offensively and defensively have not gone unnoticed by Capel, who rewarded Brown with a career-high 28 minutes against Nicholls State, including the entire second half. Brown has been on the court during crunch time of each of Pitt's first two games.

.889 shooting percentage through two games

Just one more note on Brown. Of course I will start with the obligatory note about this being a small sample size, but Brown has 21 points on 8-of-9 shooting to start the year. The only shot that he missed? An uncontested jumper from the top of the key against Florida State against a zone defense look. Not exactly his wheelhouse, but because of how wide open he was, he can't even really be criticized for pulling up for that one.

The point is: when he has put the ball up this year, he's been very, very good at making sure it gets in the basket. In his freshman year, Brown had a field goal percentage of just .418; last year, he shot at a .436 clip. He won't continue to score at a nearly 90 percent clip this season, but even with regression, a reliable Brown on the low block would be a huge boon for Pitt. 

And here's a fun fact: through two games, Brown has more points (21) than McGowens (20), which exactly zero Pitt fans would have predicted before the season started.


 

13 minutes, 4 seconds with Xavier Johnson on the bench in the second half

One of the keys to Pitt losing today's game was that Xavier Johnson played just seven minutes in the second half of today's game. After getting into some early foul trouble, Johnson was held to the bench for much of the second half by Capel in an effort to preserve him for the end of the game.

The strategy wasn't half bad, actually. A well-rested Johnson entered the game with 1:56 to go in the second half, with the Panthers down by eight, 67-59. Over the next 70 seconds, Pitt scored 11 points to cut the deficit to just one point. Johnson himself scored two of those points on a reverse layup. 

This speaks to a couple of things that we already knew about Pitt: first, Johnson adds an element to the Pitt offense that leads to points when he's playing well. There's no doubt that Pitt might have had a better shot to finish today's comeback if he had played more in the second half.

Which leads us to our second point: Johnson has to play smarter basketball and avoid taking too many fouls. Of course, Johnson wants to be on the court, and hopefully being forced to sit for the majority of the second half teaches him that he needs to be more careful.

Twenty-one turnovers

Undeniably a key to Pitt's loss today was their lack of ball protection. Johnson and Murphy both turned the ball over five times, while McGowens (four), Gerald Drumgoole (two), and Eric Hamilton (two) also got in on the action. A lot of these turnovers can be attributed simply to sloppy play.

In terms of protecting the basketball, this was the second-worst game of the Jeff Capel era, as Pitt turned the ball over to the Colonels a whopping 21 times. The most turnovers that they've had during Capel's tenure? That would be 24, against the West Virginia Mountaineers last season. In case you were wondering, Pitt faces off against West Virginia at the Petersen Events Center next Friday, Nov. 15. And if Pitt protects the ball as lackadaisically against WVU's full-court pressure like they did today against Nicholls, they will not have a prayer against the Mountaineers.

If you're looking for a silver-lining, though, turnovers are largely an avoidable phenomenon in college basketball, and Pitt will surely improve in this area as the season progresses. Last season, for instance, Pitt wound up posting five games with 10 or fewer turnovers against ACC opponents in February and March. 

Four minutes

The much-anticipated debut of Abdoul Karim Coulibaly came and went today, as the freshman forward subbed in for the final four minutes of the first half and then... did not see the court again. I have to think that this had more to do with Pitt trying to mount a comeback, as Brown played for the entirety of the second half. 

Coulibaly did not record any statistics during his time against Nicholls State. I still believe that he will ultimately see his playing minutes increase throughout the out-of-conference schedule, so long as Pitt finds themselves leading against the teams that they should beat.

It is a decent bet that he will see more of the floor on Tuesday against Robert Morris, though he is unlikely to play next Friday against West Virginia.

Seven players

Capel shrunk his bench and rotation to try to mount a second-half comeback against Nicholls State, and it nearly worked. We also got yet another insight into which players he trusts the most at this point in the season. In the second half, Murphy, Brown and Au'Diese Toney all pitched complete games (20 minutes). It is not a surprise to see that capel kept Toney out there for the entire half, since Pitt needed a defensive boost after a very soft first half. Toney has earned his reputation as a stout defensive player, and he earned his keep today, snatching nine rebounds (eight defensive). 

Beyond that, McGowens and Justin Champagnie each logged 13 minutes, while Drumgoole and Johnson each played seven minutes. Notably, starting center Eric Hamilton and Coulibaly did not see the floor as Capel shrunk his bench a bit for the home stretch.

Drumgoole finished with just 13 minutes on the day, while Hamilton finished with just eight. Conversely, Toney's 34 minutes dwarf the 13 minutes that he received against Florida State. This really highlights Capel's philosophy of riding the momentum, and using players in situations where their roles can be best utilized. Outside of Johnson and McGowens, most players will likely see some level of fluctuation in their minutes on a game-by-game basis.

70-3 record at the Petersen Events Center in the month of November

And finally, Pitt set a dubious mark for themselves with the home loss to Nicholls State today, as it was just the third time that they have ever lost at the Petersen Events Center in the month of November.

The most recent loss at the Pete in November before this afternoon came during the final year of the Kevin Stallings era, when Pitt lost in overtime to Montana, 83-78. Pitt finished their out-of-conference slate that year with an 8-5 record on their way to a winless ACC campaign. 

Pitt's only other loss at the Pete in November came under Jamie Dixon during the 2011-12 campaign (my freshman year at Pitt), when Long Beach State upset the no. 9 ranked Panthers by a score of 86-76. Pitt wound up losing 13 conference games that year in the Big East en route to a tournament win in the College Basketball Invitational.

In all likelihood, this Pitt team will be better than both of the previous two Pitt teams that lost at the Pete in November. After finishing 0-18 in ACC play in 2017 and 3-15 last year, Pitt is very likely to improve in ACC play for a second straight season. How much they improve remains to be seen, but it is fair to say that they have shown some real potential in their first two games alongside some sloppy play.

All in all, Pitt has just one loss in what will be a long season. The most important thing is that they win the games that they should during the rest of the out-of-conference schedule and continue to show improvement as we march toward ACC play. If they can manage both of those things, post-season play might still be on the table for the 2019 Panthers.

Friday, November 8, 2019

By the Numbers: Pitt vs. Florida State - Nov. 6, 2019

   Pitt beat the Florida State Seminoles 63-61 at the Petersen Events Center on Wednesday to move to 1-0 on the season heading into their out-of-conference schedule. I had a chance to sit down, re-watch the game, and put together some numbers that were key to Pitt's success against the Seminoles. Let's dive in to look for the keys to Pitt's success against Florida State:


13 minutes, 17 seconds in the double-bonus

Incredibly, this is the amount of time that Pitt spent offensively in the double-bonus against Florida State. That time is split nearly evenly between the two halves--Pitt entered the double bonus with 7 minutes, 10 seconds remaining in the first half; and they entered the double bonus with 6 minutes, 7 seconds remaining in the second half. In total, Pitt spent a whopping 33 percent of the game in the double-bonus.


1 minute, 39 seconds allowed in the double-bonus

Conversely, the Seminoles spent less than two minutes in the double-bonus, all of which occurred in the waning moments of the second half. In fact, Pitt did not allow Florida State to even get into the one-and-one bonus at all during the first half, and the Seminoles spent fewer than six minutes in the bonus or double-bonus total for the night.


22-for-31 from the Free Throw line

Pitt made 71.0 percent of its free throw tries on Wednesday, making 22 freebies compared with 13 for Florida State. In the final two minutes of the game with a slim lead, Pitt made five of seven attempts (71.4 percent) to nail down the victory. Last season, Pitt's 69.7 percent free throw shooting ranked no. 203 in the country. Their 71.0 percent rate against Florida State would have ranked no. 164 in the country last season. Of course, this was just one game and one data point. While it was good enough for Pitt to hang on for victory against Florida State, the Panthers will need to continue to improve their free throw shooting if it wants to put away close games against tough ACC opponents.




Fourteen points in the paint

Pitt had just 14 points in the paint against the Seminoles, and just four in the first half. Team leaders for points in the paint were Terrell Brown with eight; Eric Hamilton with four; and Xavier Johnson with two. Florida State had 26 points in the paint, nearly double that of the Panthers.


Thirty-four bench points

Pitt scored thirty four points from their bench, led by Brown (13), Ryan Murphy (13), and Champagnie (8). Last season, Pitt accomplished 30-plus bench points just once in ACC play--they scored 37 in a 73-65 loss against Georgia Tech in Atlanta. They put up more than 20 bench points just six times in ACC play last season, nearly matched by the five times that their bench scored fewer than 10 points in a game in ACC play. With a deeper bench in 2019-20, it's fair to expect more bench scoring than last season. 


11 minutes, 28 seconds to close out the game

Jeff Capel was not afraid to go to his bench last night, as Pitt played used eight players in their rotation, seven of whom played more than 15 minutes. All three players off the bench--Brown, Murphy, and Champagnie--played at least 22 minutes. However, as originally noted by Chris Peak of Panther-Lair.com, the Panthers used the same lineup for the final 11 minutes and 28 seconds to finish off the Florida State Seminoles. That lineup consisted of Johnson, Murphy, Champagnie, Brown, and Trey McGowens. 


1.58 points per possession

The best part? That lineup got the job done in crunch time:
That's right--in the final minutes of the second half, that lineup put up more than double the points per possession (1.58 points) than all of the other lineup combinations combined (0.72 points) for the first 28 minutes of game play. 


Nine three-pointers

One of the biggest question marks coming into this season was how Pitt would replace the three-point shooting prowess of Jared Wilson-Frame. Well, they hit nine three-pointers in 26 attempts (34.6 percent), with multiple triples hit by each of Murphy (three), Johnson (two), McGowens (two), and Champagnie (two). Murphy, for one, looks like the spot-up shooter that Pitt needs on the wing. However, if those other guys along with Gerald Drumgoole and Au'Diese Toney can knock down a few as well, this team will have more than made up for their shooting deficiencies from the outside.

   After one game, we can only glean so much about the state of this Pitt basketball team. Pitt flashed some moments of great talent, and looked sloppy in other moments--in other words, just what you would expect for a team's first game of the season. They came away with a win against an extremely talented Florida State team, and now turn to out-of-conference play to do some fine-tuning before they return to their conference schedule in December.

Opinion: The City Game has run its course

   Following the Panthers' win on Monday night against Northern Illinois, Pitt men's basketball coach Jeff Capel gave a curt respons...