By the Numbers: Pitt vs. Nicholls State - Nov. 9, 2019

   Pitt dropped their first non-conference game of the season today at home to the Nicholls State Colonels by a score of 75-70. Despite being down by around 10 points for most of the game, Pitt battled back and actually narrowed the deficit to just one point with around a minute left. 

   But as was the case for much of the game, the final minute was defined by turnovers and sloppy play as Pitt could not finish the comeback. With the result officially in the books, let's take a look at some of the numbers behind Pitt's performance today:

Twenty-eight points by Ryan Murphy

Offensively, Murphy one of the few bright spots for the Panthers, who put up up 28 points on 10-of-17 shooting, including four three-pointers. He added five rebounds and three assists. The first-year Pitt guard out of New Mexico Junior College played the most of any Panther today with 37 minutes, as he stayed on the court for the duration of the game once he was subbed in at the 16:57 mark in the first half.

Murphy, who was lauded for his shooting and overall effort level in the season opener against Florida State, has quickly become a focal point of Jeff Capel's offense. While Capel surely expects and hopes for significant contributions from Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens, there can be little doubt that Murphy will be very important to the Panthers' success this season.

Five blocks by Terrell Brown

Just about the only other bright spot in Pitt's loss today was junior big man Terrell Brown, who was a defensive force on the low block today. Brown finished today's game with eight points on a perfect 4-for-4 shooting, and added five rebounds (three offensive), and five blocks. The five blocks give him 112 for his career thus far, earning him a spot among the top-10 shot blockers in Pitt basketball history.

Perhaps most importantly today was that Brown once again finished the day with zero turnovers, for the second time in two games this season. Last season, Brown was notorious for his propensity to fumble passes underneath the basket, but he has been sure-handed and reliable thus far this season. 

His contributions to the Panthers both offensively and defensively have not gone unnoticed by Capel, who rewarded Brown with a career-high 28 minutes against Nicholls State, including the entire second half. Brown has been on the court during crunch time of each of Pitt's first two games.

.889 shooting percentage through two games

Just one more note on Brown. Of course I will start with the obligatory note about this being a small sample size, but Brown has 21 points on 8-of-9 shooting to start the year. The only shot that he missed? An uncontested jumper from the top of the key against Florida State against a zone defense look. Not exactly his wheelhouse, but because of how wide open he was, he can't even really be criticized for pulling up for that one.

The point is: when he has put the ball up this year, he's been very, very good at making sure it gets in the basket. In his freshman year, Brown had a field goal percentage of just .418; last year, he shot at a .436 clip. He won't continue to score at a nearly 90 percent clip this season, but even with regression, a reliable Brown on the low block would be a huge boon for Pitt. 

And here's a fun fact: through two games, Brown has more points (21) than McGowens (20), which exactly zero Pitt fans would have predicted before the season started.


 

13 minutes, 4 seconds with Xavier Johnson on the bench in the second half

One of the keys to Pitt losing today's game was that Xavier Johnson played just seven minutes in the second half of today's game. After getting into some early foul trouble, Johnson was held to the bench for much of the second half by Capel in an effort to preserve him for the end of the game.

The strategy wasn't half bad, actually. A well-rested Johnson entered the game with 1:56 to go in the second half, with the Panthers down by eight, 67-59. Over the next 70 seconds, Pitt scored 11 points to cut the deficit to just one point. Johnson himself scored two of those points on a reverse layup. 

This speaks to a couple of things that we already knew about Pitt: first, Johnson adds an element to the Pitt offense that leads to points when he's playing well. There's no doubt that Pitt might have had a better shot to finish today's comeback if he had played more in the second half.

Which leads us to our second point: Johnson has to play smarter basketball and avoid taking too many fouls. Of course, Johnson wants to be on the court, and hopefully being forced to sit for the majority of the second half teaches him that he needs to be more careful.

Twenty-one turnovers

Undeniably a key to Pitt's loss today was their lack of ball protection. Johnson and Murphy both turned the ball over five times, while McGowens (four), Gerald Drumgoole (two), and Eric Hamilton (two) also got in on the action. A lot of these turnovers can be attributed simply to sloppy play.

In terms of protecting the basketball, this was the second-worst game of the Jeff Capel era, as Pitt turned the ball over to the Colonels a whopping 21 times. The most turnovers that they've had during Capel's tenure? That would be 24, against the West Virginia Mountaineers last season. In case you were wondering, Pitt faces off against West Virginia at the Petersen Events Center next Friday, Nov. 15. And if Pitt protects the ball as lackadaisically against WVU's full-court pressure like they did today against Nicholls, they will not have a prayer against the Mountaineers.

If you're looking for a silver-lining, though, turnovers are largely an avoidable phenomenon in college basketball, and Pitt will surely improve in this area as the season progresses. Last season, for instance, Pitt wound up posting five games with 10 or fewer turnovers against ACC opponents in February and March. 

Four minutes

The much-anticipated debut of Abdoul Karim Coulibaly came and went today, as the freshman forward subbed in for the final four minutes of the first half and then... did not see the court again. I have to think that this had more to do with Pitt trying to mount a comeback, as Brown played for the entirety of the second half. 

Coulibaly did not record any statistics during his time against Nicholls State. I still believe that he will ultimately see his playing minutes increase throughout the out-of-conference schedule, so long as Pitt finds themselves leading against the teams that they should beat.

It is a decent bet that he will see more of the floor on Tuesday against Robert Morris, though he is unlikely to play next Friday against West Virginia.

Seven players

Capel shrunk his bench and rotation to try to mount a second-half comeback against Nicholls State, and it nearly worked. We also got yet another insight into which players he trusts the most at this point in the season. In the second half, Murphy, Brown and Au'Diese Toney all pitched complete games (20 minutes). It is not a surprise to see that capel kept Toney out there for the entire half, since Pitt needed a defensive boost after a very soft first half. Toney has earned his reputation as a stout defensive player, and he earned his keep today, snatching nine rebounds (eight defensive). 

Beyond that, McGowens and Justin Champagnie each logged 13 minutes, while Drumgoole and Johnson each played seven minutes. Notably, starting center Eric Hamilton and Coulibaly did not see the floor as Capel shrunk his bench a bit for the home stretch.

Drumgoole finished with just 13 minutes on the day, while Hamilton finished with just eight. Conversely, Toney's 34 minutes dwarf the 13 minutes that he received against Florida State. This really highlights Capel's philosophy of riding the momentum, and using players in situations where their roles can be best utilized. Outside of Johnson and McGowens, most players will likely see some level of fluctuation in their minutes on a game-by-game basis.

70-3 record at the Petersen Events Center in the month of November

And finally, Pitt set a dubious mark for themselves with the home loss to Nicholls State today, as it was just the third time that they have ever lost at the Petersen Events Center in the month of November.

The most recent loss at the Pete in November before this afternoon came during the final year of the Kevin Stallings era, when Pitt lost in overtime to Montana, 83-78. Pitt finished their out-of-conference slate that year with an 8-5 record on their way to a winless ACC campaign. 

Pitt's only other loss at the Pete in November came under Jamie Dixon during the 2011-12 campaign (my freshman year at Pitt), when Long Beach State upset the no. 9 ranked Panthers by a score of 86-76. Pitt wound up losing 13 conference games that year in the Big East en route to a tournament win in the College Basketball Invitational.

In all likelihood, this Pitt team will be better than both of the previous two Pitt teams that lost at the Pete in November. After finishing 0-18 in ACC play in 2017 and 3-15 last year, Pitt is very likely to improve in ACC play for a second straight season. How much they improve remains to be seen, but it is fair to say that they have shown some real potential in their first two games alongside some sloppy play.

All in all, Pitt has just one loss in what will be a long season. The most important thing is that they win the games that they should during the rest of the out-of-conference schedule and continue to show improvement as we march toward ACC play. If they can manage both of those things, post-season play might still be on the table for the 2019 Panthers.